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India's electronics manufacturing to quadruple by 2030; Says Nomura
Industry News- Sep 13,24
Exports are projected to grow at a robust 35% CAGR, potentially reaching $210 billion by FY30, while domestic consumption is expected to increase at a 15% CAGR.
India’s electronics manufacturing sector is at a pivotal moment, with expectations to nearly quadruple from FY24 to FY30, reaching $450 billion and growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 25%, according to a report by Nomura dated September 11, 2024.
The report highlights several key drivers of this growth:
- Increased sourcing by global tech giants like Apple and Samsung, accounting for 20-30% of their requirements.
- Major IT hardware companies such as Lenovo, HP, and Dell sourcing approximately 20% of their global needs from India.
- Rising electronics usage and a push for localisation in the automotive sector.
- Expanded usage in railways, telecommunications, and defence, along with significant scale-up in the component ecosystem, including displays, PCBs, and semiconductors.
Exports are projected to grow at a robust 35% CAGR, potentially reaching $210 billion by FY30, while domestic consumption is expected to increase at a 15% CAGR. Central to this growth is the Indian government's focus on boosting domestic electronics manufacturing through Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes, totalling $20 billion, with a substantial portion allocated for semiconductors and electronic components.
Nomura has also initiated coverage on Dixon Technologies and Kaynes Technology, assigning buy ratings with target prices of Rs 15,567 and Rs 5,969, respectively.
The report compares India’s current conditions to those that fuelled tech manufacturing growth in the US, Japan, China, and Taiwan. It notes that strong government support through schemes like PLI and import restrictions has created a favourable environment for localisation and export growth.
Nomura analysts acknowledge concerns about the sustainability of these incentives but argue that such government support has been crucial in the early stages of tech industry development in other successful countries. They believe that this approach is essential for developing a self-sustaining industry in India.
The government's initiatives are also boosting industry confidence to invest significantly in advanced technology and deeper backward integration. Additionally, India’s cost-competitive labour, which is 20-50% cheaper than in Vietnam and Thailand, enhances its attractiveness for large-scale investments.
Nomura emphasises that India's neutral position in the US-China tech rivalry positions it as a favourable partner for both Western and Asian tech firms, providing further impetus for growth in the sector.
(moneycontrol)
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