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India can achieve net-zero emissions by phasing out fossil-fuel cars by 2038
Industry News- Jun 19,24
In the base case ETS, passenger electric vehicle (or electric car) sales continue to rise globally, even though growth has slowed in the US and Europe as a result of regulatory and political changes, and some automakers pushing back their EV targets.
BloombergNEF’s Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook (EVO) shows that EV adoption is still growing, despite the mixed near-term outlook in some markets. The new report indicates that rapidly falling battery prices, advancements in next-generation battery technology and improving relative economics of electric vehicles with internal-combustion engine counterparts continue to underpin long-term EV growth globally. However, the report indicates that the window to reach global net-zero tran
sport ambitions is now narrower than ever and the world to achieve a zero-emission vehicle fleet by 2050, sales of combustion vehicles would need to stop around 2038.
The report presents two updated road transport scenarios: the base case Economic Transition Scenario (ETS) – in which EV adoption is shaped by current techno-economic trends and with no new policy intervention – and the Net Zero Scenario (NZS) consistent with reaching a global zero-emission fleet by 2050.
In the base case ETS, passenger electric vehicle (or electric car) sales continue to rise globally, even though growth has slowed in the US and Europe as a result of regulatory and political changes, and some automakers pushing back their EV targets. In the US, a lack of lower-cost models and EV market jitters have slowed adoption this year, while block-wide fuel-economy targets in Europe do not become more stringent until 2025, releasing automakers active in the region from the pressure to substantially increase sales of electric cars.
The report also shows that passenger electric vehicles are no longer only a wealthy country phenomenon, with the likes of Thailand, India and Brazil all experiencing record sales as more low-cost electric cars are launched targeting local buyers.
According to BNEF data, global electric car sales rise from 13.9 million in 2023 to 30.2 million in 2027. In the next four years, passenger electric vehicle sales grow at an average of 21% per year, compared to the average of 61% between 2020 and 2023. The EV share of global new passenger vehicle sales jumps to 33% in 2027, from 17.8% in 2023. China, the US and Europe account for 89% of global passenger EV sales in 2027.
Improving economics of electric vehicles underpin the continued long-term growth in EV adoption.
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