In the last four years, the growth rate of power generation has varied between 5.21 and 8.89 per cent. Per capita electricity consumption rose by 45.8 per cent to 1,395 kWh in 2023-24 from 957 kWh in 2013-14. Energy shortages reduced from 4.2 per cent (2013-14) to 0.1 per cent (2024-25).  

There are two broad divisions in power generation plants: one, coal-based and nuclear, and two, all others. This division is based on generation capacity. The first group consists of plants with large capacities (for example, coal-based thermal units have been upped to 810 MW, and the average capacity of the seven nuclear plants in operation is about 1,300 MW), whereas all other units are of much smaller capacities. According to the current plans, nuclear capacity in India is set to hit 100 GW by 2047. 

This means we need to install about 4,000 MW of nuclear per annum between now and 2047. In the same period, coal-based thermal capacity is set to reach 600,000 MW by 2047, an addition of 12,000 MW per annum. While M/s EDF, BHEL and L&T are the three main companies capable of manufacturing nuclear turbines in the required MW range, there are at least 10 companies that can supply high-MW steam turbines for thermal coal-fired plants. Hence, to cater to the projected demand in these two sectors, BHEL and L&T will probably have to do the heavy lifting. Others, including Toshiba, will also be competitors ready to cater to the expected market growth. 

Current installed power generation capacity in India 

Source: Union Ministry of Power 

The companies that cater to both segments need to make challenging decisions in the near future to decide the product mix. To get an idea of the developing scenario, let us look at the emerging picture, which at the moment is far from clear. Yet, this is the only one available and, in line with the uncertainties associated with long-term planning, has to be adopted as the baseline for the planning and decision-making exercise. 

Current and planned nuclear capacity: India’s nuclear energy programme is progressing rapidly, with 8,780 MW of operational capacity already in place and an additional 12,200 MW under construction. Further, the government has outlined planned additions of 19,680 MW by 2032, reflecting a steady and ambitious build-out of nuclear infrastructure. Looking ahead, the country’s Vision 2047 sets a target of 100 GW of nuclear capacity, representing a nearly thirteen-fold increase over current levels. This trajectory underscores India’s long-term strategy to make nuclear power a cornerstone of its decarbonised, reliable and sustainable energy mix. 

 A key change in the government’s policy towards the installation of nuclear plants is distributed generation. In this scenario, it is proposed to have smaller-sized reactors spread over more locations. The idea could be twofold: induce many more manufacturers to get into the supply side and avoid the large-scale risks in large-capacity plants in a few locations. The Three Mile Island disaster, the Chernobyl disaster and others (the Fukuyama accident during the tsunami) have made some governments think about smaller reactor size and distributed generation.?